We have kept you updated with all things COVID-19 over the past few months. We have seen the country feel anxious over the virus, to finding a sense of normality through it all. Now that we have a good grasp of consumer behavior and shopping patters, we wanted to dive into some other issues, such as the controversial topic of face masks. We also touched on sentiments towards the handling of the pandemic by state officials and the president. Look through our infographic below to see what we have uncovered!
Pulse check on July 13: frustrated.
Riding the wave.
Riding the wave.
Are we in the second wave of COVID-19 already? With so much uncertainty, consumers don’t know for sure where we are at right now.
Some may argue that we are already in the second wave of COVID-19, while others fear that the first may not even be over yet. Whatever the case may be, U.S. consumers have an action-plan as to what to do during a second wave.
What is clear to the US consumers, however, is that it is going to take a long, long time before things clear up again. Months ago, we asked consumers how long they expect the COVID crisis to last. Back in April, the median answer was 12 weeks until we go ‘back to normal’, and now we are at 36 weeks. Seems like the more we know, the less faith we have in a quick recovery…
Once again, we are delighted to have had the opportunity to converse with Carrie Shea and Mary Cooper from IRI Growth Consulting on this report.
Pulse check on July 12: Unsure.
Rasto Ivanic, GroupSolver:When I first started looking through the data, there were two things that jumped out at me.First, the reversal of the trend that we saw in May until early June when the COVID-19 index was going down significantly. But now that concern is starting to creep up again. I think that’s pretty easy to explain with a rise in cases and the national news squarelyfocusing on COVID. Just looking at the daily new case statistics, if we are not in the second wave, we are in wave 1.2. I think that notion is indicated in the data. On the right side, we see how little we believe that this will be over anytime soon. It’s up to 36 weeks now! People might be thinking that maybe by Spring 2021 this will be over.
Carrie Shea, IRI: I think people believe that by then we will have a vaccine, or by then COVID will go away like the traditional flu. Yet, we are seeing now that this didn’t happen with this wave of COVID.
RI:I would be interested to see when there will be an inflection point on that chart. It doesn’t look like it’s anywhere near. You’d expect that once people have a firm belief that the vaccine indeed is on some sort of a well-defined track to hit the market and people believe that timeline, they will update their expectations. It seems like at this point maybe we expect that by Spring most of us will be vaccinated. Once that becomes common knowledge, this curve will flatten and be reflected by that. That’s my hypothesis.
Mary Cooper, IRI:I agree. I think we will have a vaccine in the spring but it will come with glitches and we may need to later get booster shots and just like vaccines it may not perfectly cover all strains.
RI: Here is something else we saw. The concern about unemployment is at an interesting number still. We’ve had some hypotheses about why that concern goes up or down. We ran an analysis correlating the income level with their worry about unemployment. There seems to be a statistically significant correlation between the level of income and worry of unemployment. Interestingly, the data suggests that while it does seem that those with lower income are more worried, it also shows that those who make over $150k a year are significantly more worried. Perhaps these are business owners who derive their income specifically from participating in the economy and slow rebound makes them more worried?
CS: Do you think that it could partly be that those with higher income levels have higher expenses? If they are to lose their job, their impact could be more significant.
RI: It could be. The level of concern is very U-shaped. The expenses may be a part of it. We just don’t know for sure. What’s fascinating, though, is that those who fall in the middle of the curve don’t seem as concerned.
RI: I want to now move to some of the new questions we added for this pulse check. We asked people when they think a second wave will occur. Let’s ignore the extremes here (“a second wave has already passed” and “a second wave will not come”). A third of respondents think we are in a second wave right now. Another 40% believe it will be within the next few weeks to few months.
RI: So, we then asked a question about how consumers expect they will behave differently in terms of grocery shopping habits during a second wave. The answers we as you may expect.
CS: Well one thing that does jump out at me is some are saying that they are focused on purchasing the necessary products. This is consistent with some of our other IRI studies. Consumers are no longer shopping for specific products because they want to make a meal. They are shopping to refill and replenish. It’s really cutting down the number of impulse purchases in the store.
RI: For sure. And even the answer: “stocking up on key items sooner”. It’s more deliberate shopping.
CS: Yes, and I’ve seen people do that in the store. They’ve got their list and are hustling down the aisle. There doesn’t seem to be a lot of impulse purchasing or consideration of new items.
MC: And if a specific brand is out of stock, they are willing to grab the brand right next to it and give it a shot. They don’t want to go into a second store. They are willing to substitute brands more readily than in the past. Shoppers are alsoless apt to go to multiple stores to take advantage of deals too. It appears manufacturers are putting less on deal to address this phenomenon.
How do you expect your behavior to be different in a second wave vs the first in regards to your grocery shopping habits?
RI:Similarly, we asked what how’d they expect their eating habits to change during a second wave. Eating at home, more home-cooked meals are popular. There’s something about being more aware of what they are eating too. Maybe there’s some regrets in what they are binging.
CS: The COVID-fifteen!
How do you expect your behavior to be different in a second wave vs the first in regards to your eating habits?
Carrie Shea is a Managing Partner at IRI Growth Consulting with a wealth of experience in growth consulting and consumer insights. Mary Cooper is a Senior Principal at IRI Growth Consulting with a focus on CPG and Retail. Rasto Ivanic is a founder and CEO of GroupSolver.
Do you have a question you want to ask, or do you want to share feedback with us? Contact us at firstname.lastname@example.org.
With cases in the U.S. on the rise and a second wave approaching, consumers are anxiously waiting to see what happens next.
We are now navigating into our 12th COVID-19 pulse check since we first started in March. At first, we were extremely fearful of the virus, causing some to pantry-load in order to avoid outside exposure. Now, we are used to living in a pandemic, with grocery shopping being our main outlet of socialization for many of us. However, we are also aware that things are far from over, with potentially worse to come.
What is going to happen to schools? Restaurants? Stores? Our everyday routines? And even more so, when will this be over? With the help of Mary Cooper from IRI Growth Consulting, we have delved into these questions to better understand U.S. consumer sentiment during this challenging time.
Pulse check on June 25: On the edge of our seats.
Balbina De La Garza, GroupSolver:So, we are now at pulse check 12! Starting off, I’d like to go over the concern level as we usually do. Concern is still high at around 70%, but it is certainly lower than it was at one point a few weeks ago. My understanding of this is that people are still worried, but even the word ‘pandemic’ doesn’t seem to be as scary as it used to be.
Mary Cooper, IRI: Yes, concern has recently dipped a bit but overall, it’s pretty stable.
BD:Online purchasing this time around is still the same as it was in the beginning of June. What has shifted, though, is the number of those who are doing takeout and delivery. That has certainly increased. This makes me think that people are bored of being stuck at home and only eating home-cooked meals.
MC: It’s interesting that for online grocery shopping, it peaked and then tapered back off. It tells me that people are still interested in going into the physical stores. For takeout and delivery, I align with your thoughts. At first, people started eating more at home and getting creative because they felt the need to respond to the pandemic. Now, some people are bored of the same thing and tired of the extra work of food preparation at home. And of course, there are those who want to support local businesses—they don’t want to see them fail.
BD: I agree with that. People may be willing to risk it a little bit and step outside to support local businesses since this pandemic is going for the long run. This ties in with our next chart where we see that almost double the number of respondents reported to have eaten at a sit-down restaurant. This may be because as we mentioned, we are tired of just staying home and some are feeling more comfortable living their lives as usual.
MC: Also, many states are opening up. It’s all three of those dynamics in play.
BD: Certainly! Compared to the beginning of this month, although more people are eating out at sit-down restaurants, way more people are noting that they will expect to eat out much less frequently, if at all, in the next several weeks. It feels like we are much more comfortable with takeout. Or perhaps some restaurants are just not allowing people back in.
MC: That’s another good point. Not all of them are opening up. It’s hard for some business models to make it work when they can only have limited seating inside or outside. It’s very expensive for them to open. But with it now being summer, there are some restaurants getting more creative with their outside seating options.
BD: I now want to look over the insights from the education questions we asked because I find them so interesting. Unsurprisingly, most children had their school shifted online.
BD: 47% of parents felt their children learned less doing online classes, while 32% felt they learned more. Those who liked online more were mainly for reasons like safety. However, some felt that it was actually a better learning environment, which was fascinating to me.
MC: I am very surprised by this metric. I’ve heard from many teachers that they can’t hold the kids’ engagement for that long online. Let’s say school is 4-5 hours a day online. It’s hard for me as an adult to be online for that long! I think online learning is safer, but I don’t understand how they learn more.
Why do you prefer online learning for your child(ren)?
BD: Well on the other side, we also had parents who noted the challenges with online learning. Some of the biggest challenges are socialization, being able to focus, staying on task, and simply understanding the material.
MC: I completely align with this finding. It’s hard for those kids to pay attention and be responsible when they are expected to independently engage for long periods of time online. The “texture” of in-person and group dynamics get lost.
BD: For sure. I think it could also depend on age. It may be easier for students who are 17 or 18 in high school versus a 10-year-old.
What are the biggest challenges for your children to learn online at home?
BD: I want to touch on the length expectancy for this pulse check, too. For the last few studies, the median expected duration was at 20 weeks. But now it has risen to 26 weeks! I’m wondering if this has to do with the fact that we are most likely going to experience a second wave. But I am also curious if this is what folks think that the first wave is going to last for, or if this includes the second wave.
MC: Before, it was expected to last 12 weeks, then 16, then 20 and now 26 weeks. At one point I was optimistic that we were going to get a little break during the summer, before we get a new wave in the fall. But now with a resurgence in some of these warm climate areas, I am starting to think that we won’t get a break but instead power through until we get that vaccine.
BD: The last thing I want to bring up is this chart. We are seeing that more people know someone in their lives who has contracted COVID-19. It makes me a little uneasy because although 66% is still a relatively high number of those who don’t know anyone, this percentage is on a continuous decline. It’s important to recognize that this is very real, and unfortunately it may hit home for some of us.
MC: In addition, a lot more people have access to testing now. I think more people are also willing to talk about the fact that they have it. People are less afraid of being judged for it. These numbers are still going to climb.
BD: I agree. This is the reality we are in.
Mary Cooper is a Senior Principal at IRI Growth Consulting with a focus on CPG and Retail. Balbina De La Garza is a Marketing Coordinator at GroupSolver.
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